Setting up scenarios for strategic planning with simulators


     Setting up scenarios is a multidisciplinary activity. Political, economic, social and external aspects must be examined. Regarding the economic aspect, the simulation of alternative scenarios requires adequate knowledge of the variables and conditioning factors, and the use, even intuitive, of a theoretical framework for the simulation of the various types of economic policy. With this objective, the Consultancy offers two simulation systems, both easy to use and interactive with the user. The simulators are specific and exclusive to the contracting company.

       The first system is aimed at creating macroeconomic scenarios, based on a medium-sized econometric model, with 49 equations. Estimates based on macroeconometric models allow consistency between variables and thus produce so-called structured scenarios. The structure of the simulator is based on the macroeconomic model of the Brazilian economy, originally published in 1984 and since then continually expanded and revised. Since 1988, the system has been used by countless companies to set up their medium and long-term strategic planning.

     The second system is aimed at creating sectoral scenarios integrated with macroeconomic scenarios. Sector simulators allow you to recreate sector scenarios in response to an unexpected change in the environment. As a starting point, macroeconomic results are inserted into sectoral models to evaluate business market scenarios. The Consultancy is one of the pioneers in bridging the gap between macroeconomic scenarios and the behavior of specific sectors. The SEM - SE® system is registered with INPI, National Institute of Industrial Property, Certificate RS 04228-1, issued on January 20, 2010.