Short-Term monitorind and forecasting economic activities

 

     This is a pioneering product, whose formulation and use in Brazil date back to 1976, and which from 1980 onwards, became an instrument of differentiation and success for companies. The SIA® system – System of Leading Indicators is supported by a database with more than 10 thousand variables, some resulting from surveys by the Consultancy itself and with exclusive access, which allows the development of systems for a wide variety of situations and with exclusive use of customers.

     The principle of the leading indicator system is simple, intuitive, and theoretically based. Some variables, properly chosen, have the property of summarizing information capable of signaling the beginning of a recession or an economic recovery several months in advance, both for aggregate activity and for specific sectors. For example, an increase in business and consumer insolvency means that the pace of activity is likely to decline in future months. New orders for machinery, requests for licenses for new construction, increases in real wages and employment levels, and favorable economic policy measures are other variables capable of predicting or generating a change in the cyclical phase.       

     The aggregation of variables with the characteristic of advance in an index, called composite leading indicator – IAC, can play an important role in economic forecasting. It is more reliable for short-term cyclical forecasting than any other method. With this instrument, companies can coordinate production and marketing efforts, manage sales, manage inventories, define promotion and marketing strategies, establish pricing policies, define the “timing” for negotiations with suppliers, unions, etc. Another advantage of the system is that it integrates the areas of marketing, finance and strategic planning, with the monitoring and prediction of market behavior. The system of leading indicators is used to monitor and predict short-term movements of variables representing sales, production, and other real phenomena, meeting the tactical objective of companies, organizations, managers and investors in the financial market. The system can be developed for markets and activities for restricted use by the contracting company.

® system is registered with INPI, National Institute of Industrial Property, Certificate RS 03114-2, issued on October 20, 2009.

     In the assembly services of monitoring and forecasting systems, SILCON brings together four differentiated assets: (a) SIA ® software – System of Leading Indicators, registered with INPI; (b) international recognition of predictive quality, with the Forecast Accuracy Awards Brazil for the best performance in 2023 in forecasting macroeconomic variables, published in the monthly bulletin Latin American Consensus Forecasts , awarded by Consensus Economics , England , in a list with major international and Brazilian consultancy companies ; (c) SilconData database with more than 10 thousand series; and (d) extensive experience , including support for academic production of books, articles and reports produced by our technical team.